Bayesian Machine Learning In Python Ab Testing

Data Science, Machine Learning, and Data Analytics Techniques for Marketing, Digital Media, Online Advertising, and More

Last updated 2022-01-10 | 4.6

- Use adaptive algorithms to improve A/B testing performance
- Understand the difference between Bayesian and frequentist statistics
- Apply Bayesian methods to A/B testing

What you'll learn

Use adaptive algorithms to improve A/B testing performance
Understand the difference between Bayesian and frequentist statistics
Apply Bayesian methods to A/B testing

* Requirements

* Probability (joint
* marginal
* conditional distributions
* continuous and discrete random variables
* PDF
* PMF
* CDF)
* Python coding with the Numpy stack

Description

This course is all about A/B testing.

A/B testing is used everywhere. Marketing, retail, newsfeeds, online advertising, and more.

A/B testing is all about comparing things.

If you’re a data scientist, and you want to tell the rest of the company, “logo A is better than logo B”, well you can’t just say that without proving it using numbers and statistics.

Traditional A/B testing has been around for a long time, and it’s full of approximations and confusing definitions.

In this course, while we will do traditional A/B testing in order to appreciate its complexity, what we will eventually get to is the Bayesian machine learning way of doing things.

First, we’ll see if we can improve on traditional A/B testing with adaptive methods. These all help you solve the explore-exploit dilemma.

You’ll learn about the epsilon-greedy algorithm, which you may have heard about in the context of reinforcement learning.

We’ll improve upon the epsilon-greedy algorithm with a similar algorithm called UCB1.

Finally, we’ll improve on both of those by using a fully Bayesian approach.

Why is the Bayesian method interesting to us in machine learning?

It’s an entirely different way of thinking about probability.

It’s a paradigm shift.

You’ll probably need to come back to this course several times before it fully sinks in.

It’s also powerful, and many machine learning experts often make statements about how they “subscribe to the Bayesian school of thought”.

In sum - it’s going to give us a lot of powerful new tools that we can use in machine learning.

The things you’ll learn in this course are not only applicable to A/B testing, but rather, we’re using A/B testing as a concrete example of how Bayesian techniques can be applied.

You’ll learn these fundamental tools of the Bayesian method - through the example of A/B testing - and then you’ll be able to carry those Bayesian techniques to more advanced machine learning models in the future.

See you in class!

"If you can't implement it, you don't understand it"

  • Or as the great physicist Richard Feynman said: "What I cannot create, I do not understand".

  • My courses are the ONLY courses where you will learn how to implement machine learning algorithms from scratch

  • Other courses will teach you how to plug in your data into a library, but do you really need help with 3 lines of code?

  • After doing the same thing with 10 datasets, you realize you didn't learn 10 things. You learned 1 thing, and just repeated the same 3 lines of code 10 times...


Suggested Prerequisites:

  • Probability (joint, marginal, conditional distributions, continuous and discrete random variables, PDF, PMF, CDF)

  • Python coding: if/else, loops, lists, dicts, sets

  • Numpy, Scipy, Matplotlib


WHAT ORDER SHOULD I TAKE YOUR COURSES IN?:

  • Check out the lecture "Machine Learning and AI Prerequisite Roadmap" (available in the FAQ of any of my courses, including the free Numpy course)

Who this course is for:

  • Students and professionals with a technical background who want to learn Bayesian machine learning techniques to apply to their data science work

Course content

11 sections • 78 lectures

What's this course all about? Preview 03:55

Where to get the code for this course Preview 09:21

How to succeed in this course Preview 05:51

Real-World Examples of A/B Testing Preview 06:46

What is Bayesian Machine Learning? Preview 11:33

Review Section Introduction Preview 01:22

Probability and Bayes' Rule Review Preview 05:27

Calculating Probabilities - Practice Preview 10:25

The Gambler Preview 05:42

The Monty Hall Problem Preview 07:01

Maximum Likelihood Estimation - Bernoulli Preview 11:42

Click-Through Rates (CTR) Preview 02:08

Maximum Likelihood Estimation - Gaussian (pt 1) Preview 10:07

Maximum Likelihood Estimation - Gaussian (pt 2) Preview 08:40

CDFs and Percentiles Preview 09:38

Probability Review in Code Preview 10:24

Probability Review Section Summary Preview 05:12

Beginners: Fix Your Understanding of Statistics vs Machine Learning Preview 06:47

Suggestion Box Preview 03:03

Confidence Intervals (pt 1) - Intuition Preview 05:09

Confidence Intervals (pt 2) - Beginner Level Preview 04:45

Confidence Intervals (pt 3) - Intermediate Level Preview 10:25

Confidence Intervals (pt 4) - Intermediate Level Preview 11:42

Confidence Intervals (pt 5) - Intermediate Level Preview 10:08

Confidence Intervals Code Preview 06:32

Hypothesis Testing - Examples Preview 07:15

Statistical Significance Preview 05:26

Hypothesis Testing - The API Approach Preview 09:17

Hypothesis Testing - Accept Or Reject? Preview 02:23

Hypothesis Testing - Further Examples Preview 04:59

Z-Test Theory (pt 1) Preview 08:47

Z-Test Theory (pt 2) Preview 08:30

Z-Test Code (pt 1) Preview 13:02

Z-Test Code (pt 2) Preview 05:54

A/B Test Exercise Preview 03:54

Classical A/B Testing Section Summary Preview 09:57

Section Introduction: The Explore-Exploit Dilemma Preview 10:17

Applications of the Explore-Exploit Dilemma Preview 07:49

Epsilon-Greedy Theory Preview 07:04

Calculating a Sample Mean (pt 1) Preview 05:56

Epsilon-Greedy Beginner's Exercise Prompt Preview 05:05

Designing Your Bandit Program Preview 04:09

Epsilon-Greedy in Code Preview 07:12

Comparing Different Epsilons Preview 06:02

Optimistic Initial Values Theory Preview 05:40

Optimistic Initial Values Beginner's Exercise Prompt Preview 02:26

Optimistic Initial Values Code Preview 04:18

UCB1 Theory Preview 14:32

UCB1 Beginner's Exercise Prompt Preview 02:14

UCB1 Code Preview 03:28

Bayesian Bandits / Thompson Sampling Theory (pt 1) Preview 12:43

Bayesian Bandits / Thompson Sampling Theory (pt 2) Preview 17:35

Thompson Sampling Beginner's Exercise Prompt Preview 02:50

Thompson Sampling Code Preview 05:03

Thompson Sampling With Gaussian Reward Theory Preview 11:24

Thompson Sampling With Gaussian Reward Code Preview 06:18

Why don't we just use a library? Preview 05:40

Nonstationary Bandits Preview 07:11

Bandit Summary, Real Data, and Online Learning Preview 06:10

(Optional) Alternative Bandit Designs Preview 10:05

More about the Explore-Exploit Dilemma Preview 07:38

Confidence Interval Approximation vs. Beta Posterior Preview 05:41

Adaptive Ad Server Exercise Preview 05:38

Intro to Exercises on Conjugate Priors Preview 06:04

Exercise: Die Roll Preview 02:38

The most important quiz of all - Obtaining an infinite amount of practice Preview 09:26

Anaconda Environment Setup Preview 20:20

How to install Numpy, Scipy, Matplotlib, Pandas, IPython, Theano, and TensorFlow Preview 17:32

How to Code by Yourself (part 1) Preview 15:54

How to Code by Yourself (part 2) Preview 09:23

Proof that using Jupyter Notebook is the same as not using it Preview 12:29

Python 2 vs Python 3 Preview 04:38

How to Succeed in this Course (Long Version) Preview 10:24

Is this for Beginners or Experts? Academic or Practical? Fast or slow-paced? Preview 22:04

Machine Learning and AI Prerequisite Roadmap (pt 1) Preview 11:18

Machine Learning and AI Prerequisite Roadmap (pt 2) Preview 16:07